{"id":12867,"date":"2022-08-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scotwork.com\/nz\/blog-nz\/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics\/"},"modified":"2022-08-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2022-08-07T00:00:00","slug":"lies-damned-lies-and-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.scotwork.com\/nz\/blog-nz\/2022\/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"Lies, damned lies and statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As Mark Twain put it, \u201cThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.\u201d Every day we\u2019re bombarded with COVID-19 statistics and oftentimes contradictory statistics. For example, I recently read two different headlines at two different reputable media outlets: \u201cCOVID Daily Death Toll Rises\u201d and \u201cCOVID Daily Death Toll Declines.\u201d Both were posted on the same day! The confounding part is that\u00a0both<\/em>\u00a0were accurate statements. And this is not an isolated incident. Every day I see commercial deals being negotiated with conflicting statistics seemingly based on the same data sets, and it leads to infuriating debates and time-wasting circular arguments. Knowing how to deal with statistics \u2014 or, as Mark Twain put it, those \u201cdamned lies\u201d \u2014 is a necessity for skilled negotiators.<\/p>\n

We use statistics and analytics to inform our positions, perspectives, and opinions. In addition, we often use them to influence the other party at the negotiating table. The pitfall is that negotiators tend to perceive their own statistics and analytics as unequivocal facts that everyone should perceive the same way. However, our interpretation of data is merely that \u2014 an interpretation. It\u2019s why both of the headlines mentioned above are actually true. At both outlets, the authors took the same data points and interpreted them very differently for the purposes of supporting their narrative. One took a narrow view of the data while the other took a broader view. Same data, different analyses.<\/p>\n

Herein lies one of the challenges of using statistics \u2014 they\u2019re opinion-based. Some of you are like me in that you\u2019re data-driven and I\u2019m sure saying that stats are opinion-based makes you cringe. But even though there are sound statistical and mathematical principles that should be applied to any analysis, how they\u2019re applied and what data points are used are left to the analyst\u2019s interpretation.<\/p>\n

As in the example above, there was a choice made regarding the time period that each analyst used \u2014 each presumably choosing a duration that supported their respective point of view. This happens all the time when data is presented in a negotiation: Everything from stating sales trends, financial perspectives, and market conditions, to a variety of performance analyses can be manipulated to present a certain point of view. In essence, they can all be used to influence opinions.<\/p>\n

In a negotiation, it\u2019s difficult to argue opinions. Once we\u2019re convinced of our points of view, we tend to dig in and hold those views to be fact and\/or truth. While it\u2019s possible to change opinion, it usually leads to arguments that waste time and can create a more competitive negotiation environment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Skilled negotiators are deft at minimizing or avoiding wasteful arguments. They do this by seeking to understand versus seeking to be right. When sharing our analysis of any data, it\u2019s very easy for negotiators to get trapped in the endless spiral of trying to demonstrate that their data is better than the other party\u2019s data, or showing how their analysis proves the point that they\u2019re trying to make. It\u2019s perfectly fine to share data or an analysis with the other party; it\u2019s also fine to try to persuade the other party by using the analysis. But as soon as the other party takes exception to what\u2019s being presented, it\u2019s important to understand why they take exception rather than trying to prove how wrong they are. It\u2019s that depth of understanding that will help the skilled negotiator through the difference.<\/p>\n

Seeking to understand also extends to receiving data that you don\u2019t agree with. When that happens, seek to explore the data\u2019s genesis and derivation. Asking questions about the analysis itself will help you to better understand the other party\u2019s perspective and how they\u2019re viewing the situation at hand. The more that you can see the situation from their perspective, the better your position in order to effectively navigate the negotiation.<\/p>\n

I can only imagine the kind of negotiator Mark Twain might\u2019ve been. My assumption is that he would\u2019ve been a pragmatic one who was skeptical of all data or arguments presented to him. Not a bad approach for any negotiator. After all, as Twain also noted, \u201cThere is nothing in the world like persuasive speech to fuddle the mental apparatus.\u201d<\/p>\n

Let Us Help You Avoid the Pitfalls of Statistics<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you done everything necessary to understand the many interpretations of statistics in a negotiation \u2014 and how they can lead to wasteful arguments? We can help!\u00a0Drawing on over 45 years of real-world negotiating experience, we\u2019ll assist you with getting better deals, saving time, and creating value for all involved \u2014 not to mention preserving and even strengthening relationships. Let us partner you with one of our advisers, ensuring that you\u2019ve got the broadest view of your deal.<\/p>\n

Speak to one of our experts today<\/p>\n

P: 04 2979069<\/p>\n

E: info@scotwork.co.nz<\/a><\/p>\n\n<\/article>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Mark Twain put it, \u201cThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.\u201d Every day we\u2019re bombarded with COVID-19 statistics and oftentimes contradictory statistics. For example, I recently read two different headlines at two different reputable media outlets: \u201cCOVID Daily Death Toll Rises\u201d and \u201cCOVID Daily Death Toll Declines.\u201d Both were posted…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":12868,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_legacy_url":"blog-nz\/2022\/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics\/","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLies, damned lies and statistics | Scotwork NZ Negotiation Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"World leaders in business negotiation training and consultancy with experts across 120 countries, with negotiation courses taught in 29 languages.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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